By SAT News Desk
MELBOURNE, 20 April 2020: New state-based modeling shows staying at home and other physical distancing requirements are working to slow the spread of coronavirus, saving thousands of Victorian lives.
The modeling, undertaken by Monash University and the Doherty Institute, in collaboration with epidemiology experts
in the Department of Health and Human Services, finds that if no physical distancing restrictions were in place, Victoria would have seen up to 58,000 new coronavirus cases every day at the peak of the pandemic, overwhelming our health system.
The data also reveals that if a business-as-usual approach had been adopted, 10,000 intensive care beds would have
been required and as many as 9,200 Victorians would have been presenting to the hospital every single day. Tragically, it also shows the immense human cost of the pandemic, with as many as 36,000 Victorians dying – that’s averaging 70 lives lost every day and up to 650 deaths in a day during the peak.
Premier Daniel Andrews says, “With Victorians doing the right thing and staying home, we’ve been able to slow the spread of the virus – if we stay the course and don’t get complacent, we will get through this together.”
“We’ll continue to take the advice of our public health experts, informed by the data, as we make decisions about when is the right time to ease some of the restrictions that we have in place.”
The modeling also shows that Victoria’s ‘Reff’ number – the projected number of infections passed on by a person with coronavirus – has dropped to 0.5. If Reff is kept below one, an outbreak slowly wanes. If it is above one, it grows.
Thanks to the current restrictions and the overwhelming number of Victorians doing the right thing, the modeling confirms that our curve is flattening. Victoria’s curve compares favorably with other countries that also acted early, like South Korea and New Zealand.
Minister for Health Jenny Mikakos says, “We thank all Victorians for playing a part in saving lives – we have a long way to go, but we should all take pride in the positive impact of our efforts.”
For information about coronavirus visit coronavirus.vic.gov.au or call 1800 675 398.