Tag: population

India’s population is one of its greatest assets : Nayantara Sheron Appleton

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By SAT News Desk

MELBOURNE, 16 July 2021: The population topic is not new in India. From ‘Do Ya Teen Bas’ (Two or three enough) and later ‘Hum Do Hamare Do’ (We two – Our two) and coercive population control during Indira Gandhi’s emergency are historical. The fact India will become the most populous nation is a foregone conclusion. The recent plan of the Uttar Pradesh govt led by Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath proposing incentives for those limiting their families to 2 kids and disincentives for those who have more than two children is generating debate and heating politics.

It also goes without saying China which had a one-child norm for many years has relaxed it and now families can have more children. The demographic consequences of the one-child policy are another subject.

Nayantara Sheron Appleton, Senior Lecturer, Centre for Science in Society, Victoria University, Wellington, New Zealand is researching Hormonal Contraceptives, Reproductive Rights, and Population Control. Born in UP, India, she describes herself as, ” I am a cis-hetero-Asian Indian immigrant female, interested in inclusions and exclusions in/from science, technology, and medicine from a feminist, queer, racial and post-colonial STS framework.”

Sydney Radio anchor Manbir Kohli (Kathe Sunte) talked to Nayantara about demography focussed on the latest UP population proposals. Explaining the subject, Nayantara says, if you go to India you see crowds in a city and feel too many people around and think this is the problem but ignore the many issues like inequality, gender disparity, economic disparity, literacy, infertility, rural-urban, and so on. A person who lives in the city does not know what is happening in the rural areas. So, the feeling is overpopulation needs to be curbed, she says.

So, to hide political, administrative, and social failures, the governments push agendas that paint excessive population as being the culprit. It is not the current government only but was earlier done by the Congress during the internal emergency, Nayantara explains.

“The population issue in UP is a political thing. It has not done well in the last 4 years and you want to convince lost development was because of too much population.”

Nayantara says India’s population is one of its greatest assets, the current use of the population issue as dog-whistling is evident. In fact, people are not the problem. Raising the population bogey is meant to hide failures. So, failure on the economic front and corruption issues can easily be diverted by the population issue. And, then there is no social security.

“Even if 50 percent of India’s population becomes middle class then it becomes the biggest consumer base in the world.”

About falling fertility, she says, ” India has rapidly declined in fertility rates, and in five years (by 2025) it will fall to 2.1, below the replacement rate. The issue of culture is also there. We had large farming families meaning more earners and when parents grow old they are looked after. If there is no one to look after in old age in the absence of social security then what happens.”

“Today the fight is for India’s future,” she says.

“The thing that people are the problem is there in our brain – too many people. I say, ” It is the love of people we need to bring back to India”.

VIEWPOINT: Busting myths about Muslim population growth in India

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The threat of a declining Hindu population and growing minority numbers lacks a basis in logic and facts.

By Ram Puniyani

On 11 June, Himanta Biswa Sarma, the Chief Minister of Assam, sparked a controversy when he said the Muslims should adopt a “family planning policy” to combat poverty and other social problems in the state. His statement adds to the prevailing stereotypical perception about the Muslim community vis-a-vis population growth rates. The popular perception, spread through propaganda, is that Muslims intend to become a numerical majority in India and harbor a secret wish for an Islamic state.

Many like Sadhvi Prachi of the Vishwa Hindu Parishad and Sakshi Maharaj, a BJP Member of Parliament, have advised Hindus—specifically Hindu women, to have more children to counteract this alleged design. The perception about community-wise growth rates is based on misplaced notions widely used to mock the entire community.

While the rate of growth of the Muslim population is higher than that of Hindus, a simple analysis would show that it is similar to that of many Hindu and Adivasi communities. It is easy to forget that India encouraged a two-child norm a few decades ago, not to control the population of specific groups or communities but reduce the size of Indian families across the population. It is because social and economic strata, and not religion, determines the family size across communities.

The Muslim population in 1951 was 9.8% and 14.2% in 2011 as per the Census. The percentage of Adivasis was 5.6% in 1951 and became 8.6% in 2011. These communities share in common a higher prevalence and extent of poverty and illiteracy. It is the changes in the relative social, educational and economic status of individuals and groups that affect the growth rate of the population.

The share in the population of Muslims in India went from 13.4% in 2001 to 14.2% as per Census 2011. The decadal growth rate of the Muslim population was at a 20-year low in 2011. It fell to 24.6% from 32.8% in 1991, a decline parallel to that of Hindus, who went from 22.7% in 1991 to 16.7% in 2011.

As a long-term trend, the growth rates of all Indian communities are converging. It means that the decadal rates of growth of the community-wise population are declining and approaching each other.

The argument that Muslims have more children—or larger families—due to polygamy forgets that the number of children depends on the total number of women of child-bearing age. Since this argument does not take sex ratio into account, it is simply propaganda and creates misconceptions. Further, the incidence of polygamy is quite similar among Hindus and Muslims in India.

The Committee on the Status of Women in India found in 1974 that “polygamy was not exclusive to Muslims but was prevalent among all communities of India”. It recorded the prevalence of polygamy among tribals at 15.2%, Buddhists (9.7%), Jains (6.7%) and Hindus (5.8%). Muslims were the least polygamous, at 5.7%. Polygamy prevailed despite the low sex ratio (average 943, and among Muslims, at 951). Nevertheless, the low sex ratio for India would severely limit the possibility of polygamy.

Factually speaking, the fertility rate (number of children per woman) gives us the best picture to understand demographic changes. The latest figures on children per mother by religious groups are more than a decade old, sourced from the National Family Health Survey, 2005-06 (NFHS-3). As per this data, the Hindu and Muslim fertility rates are falling at an equal pace. In 2004-05, the average fertility of Indian women was three. Amongst Hindu women, it was 2.8, while among Muslim women, it was 3.4.

In 2014, the National Family Health Survey found that the national fertility rate has fallen to 2.2, not far from the replacement fertility rate of 2 percent. Among Hindu women, it was 2.13 (a decline of 0.67%), and among Muslims, it was 2.62, a 0.78% decline) Therefore, the fertility rate of Muslims showed a sharper decline than Hindus. The fertility rate of Muslim women in Kerala is 2.3, in Karnataka 2.2 and Andhra 1.8.

Educational standards, particularly of women, are the most important contributing factor to smaller families. In these southern states, the fertility rate of Hindu women is significantly lower than that of Hindu women in Bihar (2.9), Rajasthan (2.8), and Uttar Pradesh (2.6).

As per actual numbers in the 2011 Census, the population of Muslims was 17.2 crores, and Hindus were 96.6 crores. (79%). Looking at this data, studies predict that there could be 31 crores Muslims and 130 crores Hindus by 2050.

So, the threat of a declining Hindu population and growing minority numbers lacks any basis in logic. According to the 2011 Census, the Hindu share in population now stands at 79.8% and the share of Muslims is 14.2%. Programs that limit family size are adopted by the Muslim community in much larger numbers (despite contrary perceptions), as per the former Chief Election Commissioner SY Quraishi, whose excellent book, “The Population Myth: Islam, Family Planning and Politics in India”, examines the issue in great detail.

Sarma’s damaging statement only strengthens social discord and bias. Unfortunately, social media also amplifies many falsehoods about the Muslim population. Comments like these serve to polarise society and must be combated with facts and building awareness.

The author is a social activist and commentator. The views are personal.

Source- newsclick.in, 16 Jun 2021

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg launches ‘Intergenerational Report 2021′ focusing on population, economy & debt management

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By Neeraj Nanda

MELBOURNE, 28 June 2021: Australia’s population is growing slower and aging faster than expected, the Australian economy will continue to grow, but slower than previously thought. Growth will continue to be highly dependent on productivity gains and while Australia’s debt is sustainable and low by international standards, the aging of our population will put significant pressures on both revenue and expenditure. These are the three main points focussed on in the ‘Intergenerational Report 2021′ launched today by the Treasurer Hon Josh Frydenberg MP in Melbourne.

Addressing the gathering at the launch the Treasurer said, ” Australia’s population growth is now 0.1 % and the fertility rate is 1.65, which will go down to 1.58. So, it is below replacement level, and hence skilled migration will be absolutely critical for the economy.

We are working with the universities to bring back international students,” he said.

A summary of the Report posted on the Treasurer’s site is as follows:

Population:

As a result of COVID-19, this is the first IGR where the size of the population has been revised down.

Closed borders have seen more people leave than come to our shores over the last 12 months which has seen population growth at just 0.1 percent, the lowest in 100 years.

Migration levels are forecast to get back to where they were in 2024-25, but do not recover the ground lost during COVID-19.

As a result, Australia’s population is expected to reach 38.8 million in 2060-61, six years later than was forecast in the last IGR.

On top of this a lower than expected migration intake contributes to the ageing of the population as the average age of migrants is below that of the existing population.

Economic growth:

Australia’s economy is expected to be more than two and a half times bigger in 2060-61 than it is today, with real GDP per person growing at an average annual rate of 1.5 per cent compared with 1.6 per cent over the last 40 years.

To generate this growth, it is assumed that productivity growth will maintain its 30 year average of 1.5 per cent.

This, however, will require an improvement in Australia’s recent productivity performance of 1.2 per cent over the most recent cycle.

Further investments in skills, infrastructure and digital transformation are required together with reforms generating red tape reduction, more flexible workplaces, increased business investment and a more efficient tax system.

With productivity responsible for over 80 per cent of Australia’s national income growth over the past 30 years, the task is obvious and the choice is clear.

If we want to maintain our living standards, generate higher wages and create more jobs, Australia has no alternative other than to pursue economic reform, much of which is hard and contested.

Environment:

The changing climate will also affect the economy and the budget.

The physical and transitional effects of climate change, the impacts of mitigation efforts and the benefits of early adaptation measures will all affect the economy and the budget over time.

The transition to lower carbon emissions globally will mean that some sectors will need to adjust to falling demand for some exports, while new opportunities will be created in other sectors.

The effects will depend on domestic and global actions, as well as the pace and extent of climate change.

Australia is playing its part on climate change, having met our 2020 commitments and being on track to meet and beat our 2030 target.

Sustainable debt:

Deficits are expected to decline from 7.8 per cent of GDP today to 0.7 per cent in 2036-37, before widening to 2.3 per cent in 2060-61.

It’s a trajectory similar to many of the previous IGRs reflecting the impact of an ageing population and existing policy settings, however, the budget position is significantly better than projected in most past IGRs.

The Howard Government’s 2002 and 2007 IGRs forecast deficits at the end of the 40 year period of 7 per cent and 5 per cent respectively and the Rudd Government’s 2010 IGR forecast a deficit of 4 per cent in 2050.

Only in 2015 was a surplus forecast of 0.5 per cent at the end of the period, but that was in the absence of COVID, the biggest economic shock since the Great Depression.

In this year’s IGR, health accounts for the biggest shift in Government spending over the next 40 years, going from 4.6 to 6.2 per cent of GDP, with aged care going from 1.2 to 2.1 per cent of GDP and spending on the NDIS at 1.4 per cent of GDP, nearly 30 per cent higher than what was forecast in the 2015 IGR.

Significantly, as expenditure rises, the tax take doesn’t go beyond 23.9 per cent of GDP, the self-imposed cap the Coalition put in place.

Growing the economy is Australia’s pathway to Budget repair, not austerity or higher taxes.

Only by growing the economy can we continue to guarantee the essential services Australians rely on.

We are relatively well placed, but at the same time, there are warning signs.

There remains much work to do be done.

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