Melbourne, 12 October, 2026: One Nation is targetting 20 seats (reported) in Victoria’s November 28 state election, with the party positioning itself to play a decisive role if neither major party secures a majority.
With 45 seats needed to govern in the 88-seat lower house, analysts say even a small One Nation presence in parliament could determine who forms government.
The party’s campaign is focused on regional and outer-suburban Victoria, where support for Labor, the Coalition and the Nationals is fragmenting.
Its most prominent target is Pakenham, where Victorian leader Warren Pickering is standing. Labor expects a difficult contest there.
Other named targets include Ripon, Murray Plains, Bendigo East, Bendigo West and Gippsland East.
Ambition vs numbers
While One Nation’s 20-seat target list shows ambition, it is not a prediction of results. An October seat-by-seat projection suggested the party could win 11 seats, with internal party estimates lower.
A strong statewide vote does not guarantee seats if support is spread across many electorates. The outcome will depend on where One Nation’s vote is strongest and how preferences flow.
The party is also looking at outer-suburban seats including Sunbury, Sydenham, Melton and Yan Yean.
These have been identified as vulnerable, though not all are confirmed One Nation targets. Niddrie, Premier Ben Carroll’s seat, is on the Coalition’s target list but not considered a One Nation priority.
Balance of power
One Nation has ruled out supporting a minority Labor government. Liberal leader Jess Wilson has rejected a formal coalition but has not ruled out a post-election arrangement.
The Greens could also hold the balance. A Roy Morgan projection put Labor and the Greens on a combined 46 seats, compared to 42 for a Coalition–One Nation bloc.
But Greens leader Ellen Sandell says the party wants to replace Labor, not support it: “We’re not here to merely improve them; we aim to replace them.” Premier Carroll has also downplayed a deal with the Greens.With the result still uncertain, One Nation could become a key factor in government formation.
The final result on November 28 will decide who governs Victoria.
